To Trade or Not to Trade

Some wise old men have told me the key to successful trading is identifying when you should not be trading.

When traders do static back testing with their chosen indicators they are usually checking to see if their system captured all the moves. A better use of time may be checking to see if their system kept them flat when there was no real trend in place.

Today's 34 tick range bar crude oil chart shows 2 nice short moves to trade. Virtually any trading system would have identified these 2 moves.

Looking backwards, with the clarity of hindsight, does your trading plan keep you flat outside of these 2 moves on the crude oil chart?

Crude Oil Sale Over

No more idiotic crude oil predictions from me. The beauty of day trading with the trend remains, I don't need to know where crude oil is going, I just follow.

Always a nice day to trade when there is only one direction.
(click on chart for better view)

An American and Iranian skirmish at sea set the price of crude oil up today, however it could not get over $120 a barrel. We shall see if that remains as resistance or if we move back down to the 34 EMA (white line).

Crude Oil on Sale?

The eternal question, how high will it go, just won't go away. That along with the blank stares when I tell them I don't know are starting to annoy me. So I will step out and say this may be it for a while.

So there it is my prediction, which I will stand by until it goes higher. :)

The downdrafts on crude oil today were quick and violent. There seemed to be a hint of panic selling at times today. If the street's money flow starts to move out of crude oil the reversal will be interesting.

Oh and by the way, I still don't care where the price of crude oil goes.

The Oil Sands

Crude Oil Mining


Interesting how the media works, Suncor has been in production north of Fort McMurray, Alberta since 1967. One item on American television and suddenly everyone wants to know about the "oil sands".

The price of crude oil has a little to do with it I'm sure. :)

How the world's demand for oil, while at the same time demanding lower carbon emissions, is going to work out I don't know.

It seems to me if the world really wanted lower carbon emissions the demand for crude oil would be going down not up.

Does do as we say not as we do sound familiar?



The sub title language is also interesting.

If You Can't Beat Them.....

The talking heads say crude oil prices are being driven by speculators, if that is the case then it is going to be a violent drop when the speculators leave, or turn short. For now there appears to be no limit to the upside.

Entry points for today 04/18/2008 NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil June Contract
(click on chart for better view and click again when chart opens for larger view)

Fortune

I think Fortune magazine has the most talented editorial staff in the business field. They have been doing some great work following the recent wall street "issues".

Pick up a copy or have a look online.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/28/magazines/fortune/boyd_bear.fortune/index.htm

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/03/news/companies/2boutthedoor.fortune/index.htm

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/31/news/economy/gelman_taleb.fortune/index.htm

You can click on the Fortune title to go to their home page.