Some interesting commentary from Congressman Ron Paul (who really looks like he needs a nap) and Paul van Eeden regarding "real inflation"; the increase in money supply.
The only real answer for consumers in my opinion is to keep cash to a minimum and own hard assets.
Those assets being real estate, gold, commodities, and the companies that produce and finance those assets.
The talking heads on CNBC wouldn't shut up long enough to let Paul van Eeden speak. There is a better interview with him on BNN. Click on the post title or the read more icon at the bottom of the post to go the BNN video.
There is a lot to mull over from the two Pauls. Has the fed policy from Greenspan on all been a shell game that will eventually end badly? Or is it ending badly now? Has the, we don't have recessions anymore, policy of soft landings and hidden inflation all been accomplished by printing money?
Many questions and many different answers I'm sure.
My answer remains, in real or imagined inflation, hold hard assets.
read more | digg story
5/30/2008
5/28/2008
Alberta Needs to Save
Some commentary from the CD Howe Institute on the need for Alberta to save more of its oil revenues.
Click on the "Alberta Needs to Save" title for the full report.
Click on the "Alberta Needs to Save" title for the full report.
Oil is Down, Oil is Up
The Asian and European trade had crude oil trading down to $126, and then the American trade moved it back up to $131.
There seems to be some "fear" in the market that the bull oil run may be close to over. Then the commodity bulls state that the run has just started.
RBC Capital Markets was comparing the oil run to the tech bubble that ended in 2000. That seems like an odd comparison to me as there is one significant difference in these two markets.
Companies can keeps issuing stock forever, oil is finite. So the old "it’s different this time" axiom may have a chance of holding true this time.
The bottom line for crude in the long term is not going to be determined by speculators, it will ultimately be priced based on supply and demand.
Price will eventually limit demand, and if demand falls enough for oil inventories to rise dramatically the price will fall.
I think.
The trading today was difficult as the price action was nervous. Meaning, price was jumping multiple ticks at a time and required either a large stop or a lot of patience.
I prefer patience rather than large stops.
It takes some experience to not get mesmerized by your technical indicators and take all the signals no matter what.
If price is jumping all over the DOM and just does not look like "normal" price action you are probably better off to stay out of the market.
Oil is Down (click on chart to view)
Oil is Up
There seems to be some "fear" in the market that the bull oil run may be close to over. Then the commodity bulls state that the run has just started.
RBC Capital Markets was comparing the oil run to the tech bubble that ended in 2000. That seems like an odd comparison to me as there is one significant difference in these two markets.
Companies can keeps issuing stock forever, oil is finite. So the old "it’s different this time" axiom may have a chance of holding true this time.
The bottom line for crude in the long term is not going to be determined by speculators, it will ultimately be priced based on supply and demand.
Price will eventually limit demand, and if demand falls enough for oil inventories to rise dramatically the price will fall.
I think.
The trading today was difficult as the price action was nervous. Meaning, price was jumping multiple ticks at a time and required either a large stop or a lot of patience.
I prefer patience rather than large stops.
It takes some experience to not get mesmerized by your technical indicators and take all the signals no matter what.
If price is jumping all over the DOM and just does not look like "normal" price action you are probably better off to stay out of the market.
Oil is Down (click on chart to view)
Oil is Up
5/25/2008
The Alberta Disgrace
Alberta Venture
The World’s Greatest Savers
Vol. 12 Issue 5
Story by Wes Lafortune
"In little more than a decade, Norway has saved nearly $400 billion from its oil windfall, repudiating what some call the “oil curse.” What Alberta could learn from this frugal northern nation?"
Nice story from Alberta Venture magazine.
A little local politics here so you'll have to excuse me if your location does not lead you to care.
A couple of facts clearly point out the disgrace.
Norway started their Petroleum Fund in 1996 and its value has now reached 390 billion dollars.
Alberta started their Heritage Trust Fund in 1976 and its value is currently 16.6 billion dollars.
That is the disgrace.
The hope lies in Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada's proven oil reserves are now ranked second in the world with the recent inclusion of the Alberta oil sands in the total.
We Albertans still have the opportunity in front of us to do the right thing.
The question is, do we have the fortitude, leadership, and the will to make it happen?
The World’s Greatest Savers
Vol. 12 Issue 5
Story by Wes Lafortune
"In little more than a decade, Norway has saved nearly $400 billion from its oil windfall, repudiating what some call the “oil curse.” What Alberta could learn from this frugal northern nation?"
Nice story from Alberta Venture magazine.
A little local politics here so you'll have to excuse me if your location does not lead you to care.
A couple of facts clearly point out the disgrace.
Norway started their Petroleum Fund in 1996 and its value has now reached 390 billion dollars.
Alberta started their Heritage Trust Fund in 1976 and its value is currently 16.6 billion dollars.
That is the disgrace.
The hope lies in Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada's proven oil reserves are now ranked second in the world with the recent inclusion of the Alberta oil sands in the total.
We Albertans still have the opportunity in front of us to do the right thing.
The question is, do we have the fortitude, leadership, and the will to make it happen?
5/24/2008
Energy Speculators Draw the Heat
"Members of Congress have joined the anti speculation bandwagon blaming speculators for high oil prices and have proposed legislation to curb energy trading." (click the read more icon for the full NY times story)
Whenever the government interferes with the market bad things happen.
Always have, always will.
Maybe they should increase margin requirements in the corn market as well?
Or is the high price of corn a direct result of government subsidized ethanol plants?
Perhaps congress should question farmers about the high price of corn, demand to know how much money they are making, threaten a "windfall" corn tax?
Or is farmer bashing not as politically advantageous as oil executive/speculator bashing?
read more | digg story
Whenever the government interferes with the market bad things happen.
Always have, always will.
Maybe they should increase margin requirements in the corn market as well?
Or is the high price of corn a direct result of government subsidized ethanol plants?
Perhaps congress should question farmers about the high price of corn, demand to know how much money they are making, threaten a "windfall" corn tax?
Or is farmer bashing not as politically advantageous as oil executive/speculator bashing?
read more | digg story
Crude Oil, Carbon, Climate Change
A very well done documentary on the history and future of crude oil, carbon, and the global climate.
They do make it difficult to distinguish between facts and theory.
I'm not saying the theory is right or wrong, but it should be identified as just that, theory.
(the sound is a little sketchy for a couple of minutes and then it works fine)
And now for the other side of the climate change discussion. The real problem with the whole global warming issue is that that the "discussion" is supposedly over.
That is truly insane, to not allow the debate on such an important subject is typical of an idea that has gone beyond science and now borders on religion.
Again theory and fact become hard to differentiate as both sides bend truths to make their point.
Keep your mind open as the cost to mankind is astronomical no matter who is correct.
They do make it difficult to distinguish between facts and theory.
I'm not saying the theory is right or wrong, but it should be identified as just that, theory.
(the sound is a little sketchy for a couple of minutes and then it works fine)
And now for the other side of the climate change discussion. The real problem with the whole global warming issue is that that the "discussion" is supposedly over.
That is truly insane, to not allow the debate on such an important subject is typical of an idea that has gone beyond science and now borders on religion.
Again theory and fact become hard to differentiate as both sides bend truths to make their point.
Keep your mind open as the cost to mankind is astronomical no matter who is correct.
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