You're Going the Wrong Way!

It seems like everyone wants to go long crude oil.

Why?

Because it's gone down a bunch, I guess. So has the DOW and I don't see a big line up to get long on that wagon.

I don't swing trade so the long term trend is irrelevant to me. My attempts at predicting crude oil prices are always wrong, but, it looks to me if you're going long crude, you're going the wrong way.

Daily Crude Oil Chart

Trading The Trend

I am using the 3 minute chart for direction and trend identification. Today we only saw one trend that I could trade, long as shown on the first chart.

There were short moves on the range bar chart that you could have traded after that but the 3 minute didn't get there until the end of the day.

Patience is a virtue.

So I'm told.

(click on charts to view)


The daily crude oil chart seems to have found support on the 89 EMA (yellow) as it has been on it for 8 days now. It will be interesting to see if it holds or drops down to or through the 144 EMA (blue).

Oil Went Up, Oil Went Down

Well it was an interesting month for crude oil while I was away. Crude had been bouncing off the daily 34 EMA (white) for months and had not broken the 89 EMA (yellow) since February. Now it looks like the 144 EMA (blue) could be next.

We shall see.

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Daily Chart (click to view)


The fall for natural gas has been even more dramatic as the seasonal demand drops it adds to the short pressure.

NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Chart

Hopefully volume sticks around for August and we see more action like this.

If you want to see some pics from this trip and others check out the solfest photography link.

http://flickr.com/photos/dudesolfest/