Voice of Reason

Saw this on Denarii trader, has Fred been reading my blog?

Is There Hope?

No, there isn't.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Ok maybe, but not just yet.

We have so far to go before there is hope it's hard to even see it. I know we have Barack Obama's, yes we can, working for us. But, 21 days ago the DOW futures were over 9600. We haven't even got back to there yet.

We have a long way to go and I want to get there as fast as anyone, I'm 100% invested, and it's all long equities.

We have had a little 4 day rally, it's meaningless.

Sorry.

I hope, there's that word, that we have seen the bottom, I hope my negative post today looks foolish in the future, I hope Barack Obama and his team turn it all around.

I hope.

But I don't believe.

This house of cards cannot be rebuilt with debt. The house needs to crumble, and those who survive have to build a new one. With all governments adding more cards to the current house it only postpones the inevitable.

The house is going to fall down.

So why do I stay long in equities?

I think mine are survivors, they are paying me handsomely while I wait, and I can't miss any of the up move if there ever is one.

Besides that if you don't have hope, what do you have?

Cash. LOL

Why cheaper oil signals trouble

A little reading while I wait for the oil inventory report.

Inflation appears less menacing, but the U.S. export boom could soon face strong headwinds.
By Colin Barr, senior writer

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The commodities bubble appears to have popped, but keep the champagne on ice.

Click on the read more icon for the full Fortune story.


read more digg story

Fear and Greed

Fear and greed are normally considered opposite emotions in the trading business.

Is it possible that fear and greed are both driving crude oil in the same direction?

The greed factor is easy enough to recognize, price is going up, buy buy buy.

The fear factor is normally looking to lock in gains, don't let this profit get away, sell sell sell.

What if the fear factor is also buying crude oil.

Imagine your country running out of oil; now imagine you're the leader of that country running out of oil. The drive to secure supply is becoming a major fear from countries like China and the USA.

You can't remove carbon from this economy without this economy collapsing; collapsing to a level we have never seen.

That is why wars have been, are currently, and most likely will be fought again over crude oil supply.

That may be the fear that is rowing right beside greed in this oil market.