The Politics of Oil

The Russian / Georgian / American conflict seems to have lit a fire under the crude oil market. Crude traded up to $122.04 today and the bull may stick until the Russians get out of Georgia.

I think the Russians are informing the world (make that America) that in the universe of $100 plus oil they are now an oil super power. With the point being that the Americans are not an oil super power.

Country Rank Proved Oil Reserves
(billion barrels)
1. Saudi Arabia 264.3
2. Canada 178.8
3. Iran 132.5
4. Iraq 115.0
5. Kuwait 101.5
6. United Arab Emirates 97.8
7. Venezuela 79.7
8. Russia 60.0
9. Libya 39.1
10. Nigeria 35.9
Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 103, No. 47 (Dec. 19, 2005). From: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

This is a quite a change from the military cold war between the former Soviet Union and the United States. The case may be made now that those with the most oil become the most powerful countries in the world.

Unless those with the military might come and take it.

This is all a reminder of why crude oil is such a dynamic product to trade as the political ramifications are as important to price as are the economics.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

The renko chart did a nice job of finding some trades however the Alberta weather kept me out of the market for the fist hour or so. A thunder storm had the office power supply going in and out so I stayed out of the market until the storm passed.

Took 2 trades today with a full stop and then a winner. There was one more signal triggering as crude hit the high of the day at $120.04 and I had my stop limit order in at $120.06 and was not filled. It would have been a full stop loser if it had been filled.

13 Tick Renko Crude Oil Chart

No comments: