Showing posts with label recency bias. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recency bias. Show all posts

8/11/2009

Beautiful

2 Minute Crude Oil Chart
Those are some nice signals. Right? The first one was a stop out but the other 2 are things of beauty. Right? Solfest the "genius" must be counting his crude dollars. Right?

Wrong.

What happened? Remember how smart you were yesterday. Yes I do. In fact that was the problem. Recency bias reared its ugly head yet again, recency bias, we place more meaning on the most recent events rather than our historical results. Remember yesterday I was bragging about my brilliant reading of the ADX. So did the ADX let you down today you ask?

No. The ADX levels were through the roof. The problem was I didn't take it in. I saw it but I traded like I did yesterday. I moved stops too soon today. In yesterday's weak trend that was the right move, but today, in the monster trend the thing to do was hit the entry button and let the pre programmed stops do there thing.

I didn't do that. I let my "recent" success from yesterday cloud my decision making today. Result being I hit my daily stop and had to shut it down.

Trading is hard. :)