1/07/2009

It's Good to be the Bank

Insert Wild Cackling Laughter.

Just when I calmed down from Pranil and Anonymous telling me I'm a trading idiot the EIT sends me this.

We're all doomed.

Crude Oil Plummets

Plummets, tanks, plunges, dives, tumbles, crashes, etc. As a trader looking for volatility this should be a great day to trade. Oil in the news, good volume, it's all there.

Not for me.

It was a get short stay short day and I don't trade that way. Hard to believe looking at the 15 minute chart that I couldn't have pulled something out that.

Oh well.

15 Minute Crude Oil Chart

Tried 4 trades after the inventory report and one at the end of the session. Came up with 3 losers, 1 be, and 1 winner for small net gain. Very small.

5 Minute Crude Oil Chart

1/06/2009

No Trades

No signals on the YM today and one on CL which I missed as I was out bleeding. Or giving blood as it is more commonly known. Not for other people, no, just some blood to, ah, look at, I guess.

So no fascinating charts with witty dialogue today. How about some funny video instead.

1/05/2009

Renko Redundant?

Traded crude oil today.

Didn't look at the YM until the end of the day and there were no signals.

The 5 day average true range on the YM is 220 tics and the CL's is 503 tics.

So, I don't think it takes a trading genius to figure out that it's a whole lot easier to snag a few tics out of the CL's day as opposed to the YM's day.

Crude had 2 nice trades in the morning that I caught and one at the end of the session that I did not.

I find I am not looking at the renko chart as much as I used to. I am concentrating
(concentrating may be overstating it says the man who loves rain) more on the minute charts instead. Once a market really gets moving the renko will show an entry quicker than waiting for a minute bar to close. Maybe then they will still have some value for me.

Right now the markets are not moving quickly.

Could also be that the renko chart only has magic white arrows, which when compared to the magic blue bars are rather passé.

5 Minute Crude Oil Chart

1 Minute Crude Oil Chart

8 Tic Renko Crude Oil Chart

Oops

There is always a battle raging in a bank with the sales side vs. the risk management side and when one of those entities gains an upper hand bad things happen.

Back in the olden days when I was a banker we would actually go look at a property before we put a mortgage on it. I always asked the question would I (I being the bank) ever want to own this property? As the banker it was your reputation and credibility within the organization at risk, along with your bank's capital.

Maybe humans still have a place in the whole credit risk process.

1/02/2009

New Year Crude Oil

There are some who pontificated that it was the price of crude oil (energy) that caused the current global recession. If so you would think that the subsequent collapse of crude oil prices would help move the economy back into the black.

What does this little crude oil rally mean for the economic outlook?

Is oil looking forward?

If so it ran to $147 with a blindfold on.

Is the current oil price just a reflection of a lower American dollar?

I have more questions than answers.

For whatever reason crude has come back to life over the past few days and has shown some decent intra day range. Decent compared to the YM's range that is. I am currently simming crude oil with the magic blue bars and caught a few nice trades today.

The YM had no signals and no trades.

5 Minute Crude Oil Chart

1 Minute Crude Oil Charts