"With the cost of a barrel of oil decreasing, the benefits of that to the consumer are immediately enjoyed. But, the fall of oil can indicate that a recession is in our future." By Colin Barr, senior writer Fortune magazine
The outlook for the US economy is getting just a tad bleak.
Click on the read more icon for the full Fortune article.
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8/04/2008
Trade the Plan, Moron
Nice downward move in the crude oil market today. My trading signals were all intact, 3 minute chart had the 34EMA under the 89EMA for a short trend. The 16 tick range bar chart set up a short entry and away we go. ADX turned white and I exited the trade for a small winner.
Next, 16 tick range bar chart fires off another short signal, 3 minute chart still in a short trend, enter, move stop to break even + 1, take early exit.
Say what?
Take early exit, wait that's not in the plan, why would you do that?.
Umm, ahh, ohh, the market had been flat since the open, no follow through, I felt like it, I DON'T KNOW.
Is "take early exit" in your trading plan?
No.
How much money would you have made if you had followed your trading plan?
Why are you asking all these questions?
More importantly, who are you?
Anyway, what was the question again?
Oh, ya, how much.
Umm, ahh, ohh, $2,750.00.
How much money did you make with your "take early exit" moron trade?
Umm, ahh, ohh, $160,00.
What did we learn today?
Trade the Plan, Moron.
3 minute crude oil entry points. (click on charts to view)
16 tick crude oil range bar entry points.
Exits are when the ADX turns white, usually the open of the second white bar.
However I don't want to talk about that right now.
Next, 16 tick range bar chart fires off another short signal, 3 minute chart still in a short trend, enter, move stop to break even + 1, take early exit.
Say what?
Take early exit, wait that's not in the plan, why would you do that?.
Umm, ahh, ohh, the market had been flat since the open, no follow through, I felt like it, I DON'T KNOW.
Is "take early exit" in your trading plan?
No.
How much money would you have made if you had followed your trading plan?
Why are you asking all these questions?
More importantly, who are you?
Anyway, what was the question again?
Oh, ya, how much.
Umm, ahh, ohh, $2,750.00.
How much money did you make with your "take early exit" moron trade?
Umm, ahh, ohh, $160,00.
What did we learn today?
Trade the Plan, Moron.
3 minute crude oil entry points. (click on charts to view)
16 tick crude oil range bar entry points.
Exits are when the ADX turns white, usually the open of the second white bar.
However I don't want to talk about that right now.
Yikes
NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini gives a rather bleak outlook for the good old USA in this Barron's interview.
Click on the post title (Yikes) for the video interview.
If you don't believe Professor Roubini watch this Colbert Report for the whole truth.
Click on the read more icon for the Colbert video.
read more | digg story
Click on the post title (Yikes) for the video interview.
If you don't believe Professor Roubini watch this Colbert Report for the whole truth.
Click on the read more icon for the Colbert video.
read more | digg story
8/03/2008
Atlas Shrugged
Finally read Atlas Shrugged, by Ayn Rand while I was on holidays. You see it listed as a must read in many business and investing books so I thought I should read it.
It did not disappoint. It is one of those books that you miss when you're done.
My only criticism is that Rand is one of those authors that feels the need to use a thousand words to describe something when ten would do the job.
If you read you learn to skim.
That said it is a great book, a wonderful case for capitalism and a dire warning for government bureaucracy that attempts to control it.
It was written in 1957 but stands today as relevant as ever.
Give it a read.
It did not disappoint. It is one of those books that you miss when you're done.
My only criticism is that Rand is one of those authors that feels the need to use a thousand words to describe something when ten would do the job.
If you read you learn to skim.
That said it is a great book, a wonderful case for capitalism and a dire warning for government bureaucracy that attempts to control it.
It was written in 1957 but stands today as relevant as ever.
Give it a read.
Speculators Aren’t Driving Up Oil Prices, Report Says
A little story I missed while on holidays.
The question as always remains if speculators were responsible for driving up the price of oil, who is responsible for driving down the price of oil?
It's always interesting to watch governments and people reaction to economics they don't like. Crude oil goes up in price, we don't like that so let's blame someone.
Crude oil goes down in price, we like that, so it's just normal supply and demand economics.
"A preliminary study by a federal task force concluded that the rise in oil prices over the last five years was “largely due” to rising demand for oil, rather than speculation."
Click on the read more icon for the full NY times story.
read more | digg story
The question as always remains if speculators were responsible for driving up the price of oil, who is responsible for driving down the price of oil?
It's always interesting to watch governments and people reaction to economics they don't like. Crude oil goes up in price, we don't like that so let's blame someone.
Crude oil goes down in price, we like that, so it's just normal supply and demand economics.
"A preliminary study by a federal task force concluded that the rise in oil prices over the last five years was “largely due” to rising demand for oil, rather than speculation."
Click on the read more icon for the full NY times story.
read more | digg story
8/01/2008
Trading The Trend
I am using the 3 minute chart for direction and trend identification. Today we only saw one trend that I could trade, long as shown on the first chart.
There were short moves on the range bar chart that you could have traded after that but the 3 minute didn't get there until the end of the day.
Patience is a virtue.
So I'm told.
(click on charts to view)
The daily crude oil chart seems to have found support on the 89 EMA (yellow) as it has been on it for 8 days now. It will be interesting to see if it holds or drops down to or through the 144 EMA (blue).
There were short moves on the range bar chart that you could have traded after that but the 3 minute didn't get there until the end of the day.
Patience is a virtue.
So I'm told.
(click on charts to view)
The daily crude oil chart seems to have found support on the 89 EMA (yellow) as it has been on it for 8 days now. It will be interesting to see if it holds or drops down to or through the 144 EMA (blue).
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