The Bear is Alive!

Whatever.

I have been adjusting my trading plan these past couple of weeks and have taken some time to review my trading history and where I want to go in the future.

I have looked backward to reinforce what I believe in and answered some basic questions that I have answered before, but have drifted away from for whatever reason.

Starting with what is the basic premise that I am trading?
For me it is trading with the trend. Identifying the trend on a higher time, trading that trend on a lower time frame.

Here are some questions I have written answers for again. I’m not giving you my answers because you must trade your own answers.

1) What defines a trend?
2) What defines your entry point?
3) What defines your exit point?
4) When can you re enter the market after a trade?
5) How much are you willing to lose on a trade?
6) When, if ever, do you move to break even?
7) How much are you prepared to lose in a day?

I think the most important questions for me in that group are trend identification and when can you re enter after a trade. My diabolical need to be right manifests itself in revenge trading, which is a bad thing, a very bad thing.

These questions must have answers before you enter the market. The answers to these questions must be backed up by statistics that demonstrate your trade has a statistical edge in the marketplace.

Then you trade.

If you can think of any other questions I’m missing let me know.

Today's results were 99 winning tics / 43 losing tics = RR 2.30, 4 wins, 4 losers, 2 break evens.

I have resurrected my 34 tic range bar chart as the trend identifier. These charts show the wild moves in the last hour of the session.

Mini DOW Futures 34 Tic Range Bar Charts

Trading the Plan, Even if it Hurts

Only 2 signals today, which is a good thing as I would rather trade less than more.

Both signals were clear, both signals had nice follow through, and I lost money on both signals.

The 12 tick stops were not wide enough to keep me in and I do not try and re enter until that move is over. In other words I have to wait for a new signal. This rule is in place to keep me out of my revenge trading mode.

That's they way it is with trading, sometimes it's all there and you don't get anything but pain. Which is why people change their plan over and over. I will just show up for work tomorrow and do the same thing.

13 Tick Renko Bar Crude Oil Chart (click on chart to view)

Think Before You Trade

If the trade the markets guys are as good at trading as they are at marketing they must be very rich.

Anyway it's a funny video.

Trade the Plan, Moron

Nice downward move in the crude oil market today. My trading signals were all intact, 3 minute chart had the 34EMA under the 89EMA for a short trend. The 16 tick range bar chart set up a short entry and away we go. ADX turned white and I exited the trade for a small winner.

Next, 16 tick range bar chart fires off another short signal, 3 minute chart still in a short trend, enter, move stop to break even + 1, take early exit.

Say what?

Take early exit, wait that's not in the plan, why would you do that?.

Umm, ahh, ohh, the market had been flat since the open, no follow through, I felt like it, I DON'T KNOW.

Is "take early exit" in your trading plan?

No.

How much money would you have made if you had followed your trading plan?

Why are you asking all these questions?

More importantly, who are you?

Anyway, what was the question again?

Oh, ya, how much.

Umm, ahh, ohh, $2,750.00.

How much money did you make with your "take early exit" moron trade?

Umm, ahh, ohh, $160,00.

What did we learn today?

Trade the Plan, Moron.

3 minute crude oil entry points. (click on charts to view)


16 tick crude oil range bar entry points.


Exits are when the ADX turns white, usually the open of the second white bar.

However I don't want to talk about that right now.