Trade What You See

Hurricanes, Wars, GDP, all bullish for oil.

Right?

Wrong, oil goes down.

I don't know why, and most importantly I should not care why.

I'm supposed to trade what I see, not what I (or anyone else) think.

I took a couple of trades as oil was breaking $120 this morning. I was expecting a big upside move if we could get through $120. We got through $120.

Then we went down.

I hit my daily stop and was not able to participate in the nice downtrend later in the session.

That's my plan.

I trade my plan.

13 Tick Crude Oil Renko Chart (click to view)

We Believe

Capital is scarce.
Don’t fight the tape.
The trend is your friend.
Trade what you see not what you think.
Stops are not losses, they are business expenses.
A person’s beliefs are always revealed by their actions.
The urge to trade is stronger than the urge to trade profitably.

We believe that markets move in waves based on fear and greed. We cannot anticipate these waves and will not try to. We will instead recognize when one of these waves has begun and join in as the wave moves up or down. This type of trading is known as trend following.

We believe that markets form patterns that can be identified on a historical basis and this information can be projected onto the right hand side of the chart to provide an indication of the strength in the trend and the speed at which it is occurring.

We believe that money management not technical analysis is the key to success in the trading business. By researching, building, and tracking a trading program we can overcome the human emotions that derail most traders. This data base of statistics will have to prove the system from a numerical basis in order to provide us the emotional intelligence required to stay in this business.

Human emotions are derived from the very core fight or flight instincts that are programmed into us all. We must control these emotions in order to rise above the trading herd that is heading down the path to financial ruin.

Our trading plan backed up by our statistical database provides us the emotional capital required to allow us to preserve and grow our financial capital.

“Truth will be truth, regardless of a closed mind, ignorance, or the refusal to believe.”

Napoleon Hill, Think and Grow Rich

Do You Have a Trading Plan?

So far 5 votes in the gigantic Trading Crude Oil poll.

Hmmm, that means:

a) no one reads this blog.
b) those who do read this blog don't actually trade.
c) those who do trade and don't have a plan do not want to admit it.
d) people don't like silly polls.
e) none of the above.

Throw me a bone here people, vote in my stupid poll just to make me feel better.

Today's trades.

Daily Crude Oil Chart

We are seeing a real period of consolidation on the daily chart, and with the exception of Aug 21 and 22 we are stuck in a range around the 144 EMA.

It will be interesting to see what happens on the downside if the $111.50 low of Aug 15 is breached.

That would be pushing crude down to prices not seen since May.

Daily NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Chart

Buffett and Gates tour Alberta oil sands

Anthony P. Bolante/Reuters Files

CALGARY -"Two of the world's richest people, Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates and his friend, American investment magnate Warren Buffett, quietly flew into northeastern Alberta on Monday, where they took in the oil sands, apparently with awe." Financial Post

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One trader held 11 pct of Nymex oil contracts

NEW YORK - "A single energy conglomerate held 11 percent of all contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange at one point last month, according to a published report today, suggesting that speculators may have played a larger part in volatile oil markets than once thought." AP via the Boston Herald

It wasn't me. :)

A few questions here to say the least.

Are they insane?
How much do they own now?
Did they make any money?
Did they get killed in the drop from $147?
Are they insane?

http://www.vitol.com/

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