11/20/2008

Good Bye Cruel World

The sky is falling.
The end is near.
Ma, git the youngins, beef jerky, guns, and head for the bomb shelter.

YM Daily Chart

15 Minute YM Chart
Where do we go from here? The charts say down. How far?

I have no idea.

I'm glad I can trade this to the downside, although I should have hedged the retirement accounts. I sat here and watched and did not do anything to protect the long positions. I would not have sold, but could have used options or a bear ETF to hedge.

Not smart.

Is it too late to hedge now?

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Scary isnt it?

Solfest said...

Let's use words like unsettling, concerning, disturbing, disconcerting, troubling, not scary. Scary sounds, well, scary.

The great thing about the capital markets is liquidity.

The horrible thing about the capital markets is liquidity.

Imagine if people knew the value of their house on a minute by minute basis.

They might do silly things like sell it at an all time low.

Anonymous said...

the problem with hedging is knowing when to remove the hedge.
sometimes you remove it too soon and enter again at a worse price only to get caught on the wrong side of the trade as the market reverses.
nothing is easy

Solfest said...

So I could compound the problem by eliminating all up side gain with the short hedge.

After riding this bear all the way down (I hope its all the way) I can't risk any returns on the way back up.

I will just continue to sit here. My portfolio was vetted for debt levels when I purchased them so the risk of something going to zero is low.

Its still there, but low.