1/22/2009

I am a Human

I am not a machine; I have a heart, a brain, and a soul.

I should use them.

In trading we learn that the biggest obstacle to success is our self. All our human frailties are exposed in this business.

Or are they?

Maybe most traders just don't last long enough to become successful.

Maybe.

There has been some research that suggests it takes 10 years to really become proficient at something. Maybe proficient isn't strong enough, an expert is what you need to become in your chosen field.

Doctors and lawyers are considered to be the "golden" professionals, how many years of training do they endure. What kind of hours do they put in each day as they train? What kind of mentors do they have while they train?

How many hours, days, and years have you put into your chosen field?

The barriers to entry in the trading profession are not very high, the experts in the field want everyone to come in and test their mettle. The more the merrier for them.

Are you ready for them?

Am I?

Two trades today and as you may have guessed not too successful, not that unsuccessful either, just another day in the business.

The first trade was after the crude oil inventory report and it is usually a good idea to give that report a little space before trying to trade. Usually.

So I waited for the 5 minute blue bar to complete before entering on the 1 minute and took a break even - 1. If I had gone at the end of the first 1 minute bar......

1 Minute Crude Oil Chart
The second trade set up with one 5 minute blue bar in the bank and then the next one lost colour. So although I could see a natural spot to place the limit order I didn’t have blue so I didn’t go. I knew that it would turn blue if the trade took off, but I pulled the order and waited.

The bar I did enter on was blue when the order filled and then lost colour when the bar closed. Full stop.

1 Minute Crude Oil Chart
Now I know all you traders out there will tell me that these are 2 trades, 2 trades, you don't go off and get all nutty over 2 trades.

I know.

But, all my humanness said place the orders here, instead I waited for my magic, ok its not magic. I waited for my mechanical indicators to confirm.

I knew what to do and didn’t do it. This isn't just a look back at the static chart to play shoulda coulda woulda, these were the thoughts going through my head at the time. On the second trade the limit order was in and I pulled it.

The mechanical indicators tell me when the probability of success has gone up. They don't place orders for me. I had blue, or at least on and off blue bars when I wanted to place the orders. Yet I waited, like a machine, a machine without a brain, heart, or soul.

Is that my training at work, or is this just whining at the end of a negative day?

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I like the way you think. If you are not whining and angry at the end of a losing day something is not right. Go get em tom. Pranil

Jules said...

Yup, Solfest, that's part of trading. I curse after every losing trade. I lose sleep after every losing day, and make people and cats listen to me cuss.

Solfest said...

So you guys are telling me I have not learned anything? Years of work and my trader’s intuition is useless? I must just sit there and wait for a stupid machine to give me orders? I'm just a whining trader who should shut up about 2 stupid trades? The machine is smarter than me and I should just listen to it?

Ok.

Jules said...

No, Solfest, I meant you should whine, and maybe swear a little...at the machine. :-) I don't use machines, but to say that explicitly is not politically correct. But you know I don't use signals and machines. To me, trading is almost all arts. But I've not been in the game long enough, so I could be all wrong about this.

davidjcairns said...

I thought what made you a good trader is that you believed in the system Scott? But now you think your intuition is an improvement on the system?

That's a though one. I would say that after so many day's of trading you have a lot more experience than you used to. And moving more on your intuition might be something to think about.

P.S. From a Psychological perspective: Your brain is much bigger and more powerful than the computer and the system. Take for example you are at a party. Only listening to the conversation that you are having with your sister or something. Then some people who are talking next to you (a conversation that you could not repeat one word of, you havn't been listening) say your name. You here it, process it and look over.

This is a phenomena that many Psychologists use to propose that our brain is processing so much more information than we are aware of.

So just like when you are looking at your blue bars, your brain might be processing more information than you are aware of. Drawing on memories and logic of the system that you've become experienced in.

So those are a couple things to think about, but remember, I AM NOT A TRADER. And I really have no idea how complex trading is, or what it's like to try and understand it.

Solfest said...

DJC you better look up at the next post where I have some bad news for you.

P.S.

Who is Scott?