1/14/2009

Two Signals, Three Trades

I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.
I will not take a trade without a signal.

14 comments:

Pranil said...

so what trade did you take w/o a signal..

Solfest said...

It doesn't matter, it's just wrong.

It was at the end of the day and I had a signal on one chart but not the other. I jumped the gun. The signal then happened and I took the trade again.

The results don't matter; I just can't get into taking MUTs. (made up trades)

The 2 valid signals yielded a full stop and a full target. The MUT was a break even.

That tempts you into thinking its ok to take a almost signal.

IT'S NOT OK! (I'm yelling at myself)

Jules said...

Solfest,

were you aiming for full target in your MUTs?

I think it is ok to take an almost signal. In fact, I take mostly MUTs (coz I haven't developed the kind of patience and discipline needed to take only signals for perfect setups) and I cover once I feel that the trade's going to come back to me... Targets are irrelevant. But that's just me. I know many scoff at the idea of cutting profits, and will only trade good signals. But I haven't the patience nor the confidence to take good signals, so I live with whatever I can take from an MUT.

If you are impatient about getting in, you should also be impatient when getting out. Actually, I was thinking, you got out at breakeven on the MUT probably coz that's as far as price would go on that move. If so, then your exit sounds like a wise decision.

If you must see full targets being hit, you'll just have to wait for the stars to be aligned before pushing the button.

jay said...

I ran across your website while doing research on oil's big contango that currently exists. Any ideas on how a calendar spread trade (buying the front month contract, and selling a back month contract) doesn't make sense at this time? There's nearly a $20 profit immediately realized if one were to buy the Feb 09 futures and sell Dec 09. I must be missing something. Thoughts?

Solfest said...

Jules I have discovered that I have to trade a very disciplined and concise trade plan or I get caught up in revenge trading.

It is my biggest weakness and if I allow myself to start throwing trades on because I think it looks good a very bad pattern of results occurs.

Something about me always wanting, no, needing to be right.

A deadly sin in this business as you obviously are going to be wrong plenty.

Apparently hitting the button again and again after a loss is not the road to success.

Solfest said...

Jay, that's funny I was sitting here looking at my IB screen and asking myself that very question.

Why does March crude have more volume than February and why are their prices going in opposite directions?

There are supposedly traders leasing tankers to store oil as they look to take advantage of this. Oh before you get excited that I have the answer let me tell you I have no idea.

Tis beyond my scope of trading comprehension I'm afraid.

I day trade futures and I buy and hold stocks (ouch), that's it.

It sounds like a big fish play and I am but a little fish in the trading pond.

Solfest said...

Jay,

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRo2aV9.jLhI&refer=home

davidjcairns said...

This is Solfestson at it's best. Simple, eloquent -- utterly moving and demanding in complete sentences.
D.J.C.

Solfest said...

Yer not going to learn prose like that at any fancy shmancy university.

davidjcairns said...

Yes I agree. You have the heart a poet not bound by the ever so out of touch academia. Much like this man,
http://vispo.com/bp/introduction.htm
Your post reminds me of him.

Solfest said...

It reminds me more of this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb_Iult5k38

Anonymous said...

Jay,
Your comments about trading 2 different oil months and making a profit immediately are silly.
It's like going long corn and short wheat, they are 2 different trades and priced as such.

Anonymous said...

Jay, if you have the cash to take delivery of the oil in February and store it until December and if it costs you less than $20 in fees, interest, and storage costs then you will make a profit on the trade.

Solfest said...

Other wise known as a big fish trade.

Thank you for your polite reply mr. anonymous.