The Bear is Dead!

Ha ha.

We will probably go down a thousand points tomorrow.

A wild day to say the least.

My results were 180 winning tics / 21 losing tics = RR 8.57 on 14 trades. 7 winners, 5 break evens, and 2 full stops.

I moved my stop up to 10 and left the target at 25.

They say a bull market makes everyone an investing genius. The same holds true for a trending day in the markets, it makes everyone a trading genius. The key is to find a system that can take advantage of a day like this, while still being able to identify a non trending market so you don't give it all back when the market goes flat.

I'm still working on that.

Here's a 15 minute chart that shows the power move up this afternoon.

15 Minute Mini DOW Chart

That Was Close

The good news is we didn't make new lows on the daily DOW. So, that's the good news, ya, the good news.

Daily DOW (YM) Futures Chart

The overnight session went limit down so the market was just a tad nervous today. I found it a tough market to trade and should have stepped aside in the morning. The late afternoon session provided some nice trades and got me back in the black for the day.

You could make a nice living only trading the last hour of the day in the past month or so. So why don't I do that? I might miss a trade. My mind set, sad but true.

Depending on your definition of scalping I am either trend trading with a fixed target, or scalping. Doesn't really matter what you call it as long as it works.

I am using a 7 tick stop and a 25 tick target on the YM. I used to consider that a "trade" not a "scalp" but when I look at the number of trades at the end of the day I would now consider it scalping.

It's just scalping with a nice risk reward ratio.

I do want to cut down on the number of trades as the win rate is not where I would like it and I think I can filter some more. I have about 50 live trades to look at so I will take the weekend and see if I can identify the losing trade profile.

This is trend trading only so the obvious place to look is how you identify that a trend is place. Longer time frame chart, etc.

It is promising that you can trade rather badly and still wind up making a little money in the last 2 days.

Capital is scarce, treat it as such.

The Name Has Changed

Trading crude oil becomes capital is scarce.

The re name the blog poll died from boredom and I unilaterally chose the new name. Again the reason for the change is I have started trading the equity futures again. So, trading crude oil didn't seem to fit anymore.

I will go back to crude oil again I'm sure, but for now the DOW is the thing to trade.

Today's trading was live and profitable. The chart was a mixture of some things I learned from my scalp test, my old trend system, and some Irish mystical nuances.

I'm not posting anything until I get the plan straight.

Crude Oil Trades

Daily Crude Oil Chart (click on chart to view)


The daily chart has run into the 34 EMA (white line) and looks like it could revert back to the downside. Either that or its waiting for the U.S bailout package to be finalized and all will be well in the neighborhood.

I think demand for oil will continue to drop, and when the gulf production gets back to 100% oil could be headed south.

13 Tick Crude Oil Renko Chart


The oil trade was very quiet with a couple of strong long moves today. I was not in the first move as it started to far south. It took 3 cracks before the second long move got going, but going it did get.

I have been taking a look at the YM (Mini Dow) this week as an "exceptional Irish trader" tells me its the thing to trade since the ER2 (Mini Russell) moved to the ICE platform.

My interest is due to the smaller tick value and the idea of a multiple contract system. Not sure if I will proceed, but don't be shocked if you see a YM chart showing up sometime.