10/15/2008

A Minor Blip

100 Year DOW Chart (click on charts to view)


Yes it seems like this is the end of the world as we know it. In actual fact it is just the end of the world as we remember it.

Humans have very short memories. In trading we call it recency bias, if the market goes up for 5 years in a row we think it will always go up.

It doesn't.

Some times it goes down.

Alot.

You have to knock another 1500 points or so off that chart, down to 8500 or so, but it gives us the picture we have all forgotten. In the long run, the market goes up.

Today's trades on a 13 tick YM Renko Chart

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